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“Yet few players are taking the bold steps needed to position themselves to thrive in this not-too-distant future. The technology exists and our research shows that many consumers will embrace it,” said Brian Collie, a Chicago-based partner who leads BCG’s automotive practice in North America. “Such an evolution in mobility is no longer a fantasy. Cities will benefit from less congestion and cleaner air, but could be disadvantaged by falling ridership on public transit, fear of which could result in some cities proactively trying to regulate the number of SAEVs on the road. While total vehicle demand will only be affected slightly, by 2030 more than 5 million conventional cars per year could be replaced by a combination of fully autonomous electric vehicles for urban fleets and partially autonomous cars for personal use. Due to their ability to cut travel costs by 60%, shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) could shift about 25% of miles traveled from private automobiles-creating enormous benefits for consumers as well as causing major disruption to the automotive industry.

The report concludes By 2030, 25% of Miles Driven in US Could Be in Shared Self-Driving Electric Cars.īCG’s key insight is that the convergence of three trends-ride sharing (services such as Uber and Lyft), autonomous driving, and vehicle electrification-create a far more compelling economic case than any of these forces alone.